Apophis
A 13 year old German schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, has calculated that the asteroid Apophis has a 1/450 chance of striking the earth in 2036. He seems to have made some calculations concerning the possibility that Apophis will have its orbit modified by a possible collision with a communications satellite in geosynchronous orbit. A news report and interesting discussion on this subject can be found here.
Apophis, believed to be made up of iron and iridium, is supposed to have a possibility of striking the Atlantic Ocean. The resulting tidal waves and dust cloud would wreak havoc on the population of the earth. This asteroid is 1049 feet in diameter and weighs 200 million tons. That’s a big chunk of iron to be falling from the sky.
Even if there is actually a 1/450 chance of this object striking the earth, it is still a bit unlikely. Not as unlikely as the NASA estimate of 1/45,000. I have to wonder how sophisticated the calculations of a 13 year old are compared to NASA and all it’s computers, but apparently the agency is taking the boy’s work seriously.
Large objects have collided with earth in the past. Anyone who looks at the moon knows what a meteor impact can do. I’m not going to worry much about the possibility of asteroids striking the earth, there’s nothing I can do about it so hey, why get upset?
